Liver Cancer Burden in Portugal Set to Claim 6,600 Lives by 2027

The liver cancer burden in Portugal is set to keep rising. A national study projects that hepatocellular carcinoma will affect 4,851 people by 2027, up from 4,151 in 2023, and will claim around 6,600 lives over the five years to 2027.

The analysis, carried out in 2022 by the Portuguese Association for the Study of the Liver (APEF), the Portuguese Society of Gastroenterology and Exigo Consultores with support from Roche, estimates more than 1,200 deaths a year and about 20,000 years of life lost annually. Premature mortality accounts for 120,314 years of life lost across the period. Around 90% of primary liver cancers in adults are hepatocellular carcinoma.

Why the liver cancer burden in Portugal keeps growing

Costs are rising faster than case numbers. Direct costs attributed to hepatocellular carcinoma are projected to grow from about 70 million euros in 2023 to 77 million euros in 2027, a total of roughly 370 million euros over five years. Of that spend, 44.3% goes to systemic treatment and 29.0% to liver transplantation. The authors caution that the projections are already dated, because therapeutic options introduced since 2022 will push real costs higher.

Why it matters

Only 29.5% of patients are diagnosed at the earliest stages, while 51.2% are found with advanced disease, which narrows treatment options and shortens survival. The study’s own conclusion is that prevention, screening and earlier diagnosis are the levers that change the trajectory, which places the emphasis on how Portugal’s cancer drug delays and screening capacity shape outcomes rather than on late-stage care. The authors concede that the scenarios are hypothetical but argue they give decision-makers a basis for directing resources where they are needed most. The risk factors are well mapped, from chronic hepatitis B and C to excess alcohol, obesity, diabetes and fatty liver disease.

Source: APEF, Cancro do fígado vai roubar cerca de 6.600 vidas em cinco anos, estima estudo nacional