The Impact of Time Horizons on QALY Calculations in Healthcare

By Melike Belenli Gümüş

June 10, 2024

Introduction

Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) play a pivotal role in determining the cost-effectiveness of treatments, particularly within the National Health Service (NHS) of England and Wales. While theoretically equal, the practical application of QALYs has raised concerns, especially regarding rare diseases and unique patient populations. This article explores the impact of time horizons on QALY calculations and implicitly funding decisions for healthcare treatments.

Understanding QALYs and NICE’s Evaluation

QALYs blend clinical benefit and treatment duration, with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) using them to assess cost-effectiveness. Treatments exceeding GBP 30,000 per QALY gained face funding challenges. However, the application of QALYs across diverse patient groups has sparked debates on fairness and transparency in decision-making processes.

Figure 1: The concept of Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) combines the clinical benefit of a treatment with the time duration over which the patient benefits. Longer time horizons result in the accumulation of more QALYs. For instance, in a scenario where Treatment A has a quality of life of 0.8 over 40 years and Treatment B has a quality of life of 0.4 over 80 years, both treatments yield the same QALY gain.

Case Studies: Afamelanotide and Givosiran

Examining evaluations of afamelanotide for erythropoietic protoporphyria and givosiran for acute hepatic porphyria reveals discrepancies in time horizons. The length of time considered for treatment impacts QALY gains and subsequent funding recommendations, highlighting the need for consistency and realism in assessments.

Figure 2: Treatment duration in the clinical reality vs. time horizon used to calculate the QALY gain of afamelanotide for treating erythropoietic protoporphyria (above) and givosiran for treating acute hepatic porphyria (below) at NICE.

Analysis of Time Horizons in HST Programme

A comprehensive review of time horizons in Highly Specialised Technologies (HST) evaluations uncovers a trend towards extended durations, sometimes surpassing expected treatment periods or life expectancies. Extended time horizons can alter perceived treatment benefits and impact funding decisions, potentially influencing resource allocation within the healthcare system.

Implications and Recommendations

The study underscores the importance of aligning time horizons with clinical realities to ensure equitable funding decisions. Transparent reporting and methodological consistency in QALY calculations are crucial for promoting fairness and trust in healthcare funding processes. Addressing discrepancies and rationalising parameters like time horizons can enhance the integrity of decision-making frameworks.

Conclusion

The analysis calls for a re-evaluation of time horizons in QALY calculations to uphold fairness and accuracy in healthcare funding assessments. By fostering transparency, consistency, and evidence-based decision-making, organisations like NICE can better serve diverse patient populations and uphold the principles of equitable healthcare access.

Reference url

Recent Posts

Advancements in Pulsed Field Ablation: The VARIPULSE Pro Platform Launch

By HEOR Staff Writer

April 9, 2026

Johnson & Johnson’s launchs the VARIPULSE Pro Platform in Europe. Pulsed field ablation has advanced significantly with the introduction of a new pulse sequence that delivers ablation lesions five times faster than the previous version while maintaining equivalent lesion quality and the estab...
Expansion of Community Health Programs by Novartis to Tackle Global Health Disparities
Novartis’ ambitious scale-up of community health programs aims to close critical gaps in cardiovascular and cancer care. Announced on April 9, 2026, the initiative will expand these community health programs from 11 to more than 30 countries by 2030, including five major U.S. cities, with a stron...
Antimicrobial Resistance Art: Bridging Science and Health Through Visual Storytelling
Antimicrobial resistance art is powerfully demonstrated in the illustrated album Sketching Antimicrobial Resistance: Thirty Stories, One Health, published in November 2025 by the EU-JAMRAI 2 initiative. The publication brings together 30 original artworks from artists across 30 European ...