Model Type and Its Impact on Pneumococcal Vaccine Cost-Effectiveness in Germany

This update critically evaluates the article “Evaluating the impact of population-based and cohort-based models in cost-effectiveness analysis: a case study of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in infants in Germany.” It explores the pneumococcal vaccine cost-effectiveness through two distinct modeling approaches—closed cohort and population-based—in the German context, recently published in the Journal of Medical Economics.

Divergent Economic Conclusions from Model Selection

The central finding of the article is that the choice of modeling framework—closed cohort versus population-based—fundamentally alters the economic and public health conclusions of a pneumococcal vaccination program in Germany. In a closed cohort model, PCV20 showed improved health outcomes but at a higher cost relative to the standard of care (PCV13 or PCV15). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were €6,280 per QALY gained versus PCV13 and €16,473 per QALY gained versus PCV15. However, the population-based Markov model showed PCV20 as a dominant strategy—cost-saving and yielding superior health outcomes relative to both comparator vaccines.

The discrepancies between the models are primarily explained by the inclusion of indirect effects, such as herd immunity, in the population-based approach. PCV20’s broader serotype coverage disrupts pneumococcal transmission not only among vaccinated infants but also among unvaccinated age groups. This significantly reduces the overall pneumococcal disease burden. In contrast, the closed cohort model captures only the direct effects within the vaccinated cohort and any indirect effects occurring within the same cohort. Thus, it vastly underestimates the full societal benefit. The population model projected over €1.7 billion in savings with PCV20 compared to PCV15, a finding hidden in the cohort-based analysis.

Methodological Rigor in Economic Evaluation

The article’s methodological rigor stands out. Both models utilized identical inputs—perspective, cycle length, discount rates, vaccine effectiveness, disease epidemiology, costs, and utilities—differing only in population structure. This isolation of the population variable allows a focused comparison of how model choice impacts conclusions. Health outcomes included cases of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia (both hospitalized and non-hospitalized), otitis media, deaths, life years, and QALYs. Economic outcomes encompassed vaccination, medical treatment, sequelae, and societal costs.

Practical Implications for Policy and Research

Evaluating Market Access and Reimbursement Strategies

For health technology assessment (HTA) bodies, payers, and policymakers, the article stresses the risk of underpricing and undervaluing vaccines with robust herd effects if evaluations rely on cohort-based models. In Germany, adopting a population perspective could promote more favorable decisions for higher-valency PCVs, given their broader societal value. This shift bears direct implications for formulary inclusion, pricing negotiations, and public health budgeting.

Advancements in Health Economics and Research Methodology

The findings underscore the necessity for methodologists and practitioners in health economics and outcomes research (HEOR) to judiciously align model structure with the intervention’s mechanism of action. As highlighted in the article, this choice can alter economic conclusions significantly. Moreover, the findings suggest that static models may still underestimate long-term dynamic effects. Future research should explore hybrid or dynamic transmission models for vaccines exhibiting pronounced indirect effects.

Trends in Health Economic Methodology

The article’s emphasis on methodological rigor and transparency reflects a growing trend in health economics favoring sophisticated, context-specific modeling. Also, the focus on capturing indirect benefits aligns with the increasing recognition of the societal value of vaccination beyond individual patient outcomes. This perspective is gaining traction in value assessment frameworks globally.

Recognizing Limitations and Future Research Directions

The authors acknowledge several limitations. The underlying model does not consider regional or socioeconomic heterogeneity, potential vaccine-attributable sequelae, or demographic changes such as migration. The absence of probabilistic sensitivity analyses and external validation tempers the certainty of absolute estimates. Future studies should address these gaps, incorporate dynamic transmission elements, and explore subgroup impacts to enhance generalizability and policy relevance.

Conclusion: The Importance of Model Selection in Vaccination Policy

This case study illustrates that the selection of a modeling framework in the analysis of vaccine cost-effectiveness is not merely a technical detail but a pivotal determinant of policy conclusions. For pneumococcal conjugate vaccines—and by extension, any intervention with meaningful indirect effects—population-based models are essential to avoid underestimating societal value. The article articulates a compelling case for aligning model choice with the scientific understanding of vaccine effects and the policy questions at hand. It provides actionable insights for researchers, HTA bodies, and decision-makers navigating the complex landscape of vaccination policy and healthcare economics.

For a comprehensive exploration of the pneumococcal vaccine cost-effectiveness, refer to this detailed study.