HPV Vaccination Benefits Portugal: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Expansion Effects
What are the HPV vaccination benefits Portugal can expect from expanding coverage? HPV vaccination benefits Portugal by delivering strong economic returns. Extending the National Immunization Program (NIP) to adult males up to age 26 and unvaccinated women aged 18-26 yields benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) of 1.9 societally and 1.7 fiscally. Every euro invested avoids costs and boosts productivity (Kotsopoulos et al., 2026).
Summary of HPV Vaccination Benefits Portugal
Expanding HPV vaccination in Portugal cuts the 100-year societal burden by 57.8% under the current NIP. Adult expansions add €124 million in societal savings (€109 million fiscally). A dynamic transmission model (DTM) forecasts fewer HPV-related cancers, genital warts, and diseases. BCRs exceed 1 in all scenarios. This makes vaccination a top public health investment.
Key Insights on HPV Vaccination Benefits Portugal
- Burden Reductions: Current NIP drops HPV cases from 3.7 million to 924,638 over 100 years. It saves over €2 billion in healthcare. Expansions avert 92,432 more cases and €87 million extra.
- Strong BCRs: Versus no vaccine, status quo gives societal BCR 4.4 (€5,628M to €2,373M burden) and fiscal BCR 3.8 (€4,674M to €1,873M). Expansions hold BCRs >1.7 in sensitivity tests (±20% costs, 50% vaccine discounts).
- Fiscal Gains: Reduced absenteeism, deaths, and pensions increase tax revenue. Even over 50 years, BCRs stay positive (societal 1.6, fiscal 1.4).
- Gender Effects: Expansions cut male head/neck, penile, and anal cancers. They build on 95% female girl coverage.
These steps aid herd immunity, disease elimination, and economic strength in aging populations.
Background
Portugal’s NIP started HPV shots for 13-year-old girls in 2008. It shifted to 10-year-olds in 2017 and added boys in 2020. Coverage leads Europe at 95% for girls and 91% for boys using nonavalent vaccine (HPV-6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58). HPV causes ~800 female cervical cancers yearly (380 deaths), 1,500+ male head/neck cases (800 deaths), plus warts, CIN, RRP, and more.
The study uses a validated DTM adapted for Portugal. It projects 100-year outcomes for no vaccine, status quo (90% coverage at age 10), and expansion (90-95% to age 26). Cost-benefit analysis covers societal (productivity, healthcare) and fiscal (taxes, pensions) views at 4% discount per Infarmed. Data comes from INE wages, taxes, and literature with €110.50/dose pricing.
Implications
Expanding HPV vaccination creates €124M societal/€109M fiscal savings over 100 years. It supports WHO/ECO goals for 90% coverage by 2030. Fiscal CBAs prove value amid 20% cancer rise by 2040. DTM shows herd effects for long-term gains. Robust results aid decisions and equity.
FAQ: Common Questions on HPV Vaccination Benefits Portugal
How does HPV vaccination expansion affect Portugal’s budget?
It yields a fiscal BCR of 1.7, saving €109M in taxes, healthcare, and disability over 100 years for net surpluses.
What BCRs does the current program achieve versus no vaccine?
Societal BCR 4.4 and fiscal 3.8, cutting burden by 57.8-59.9% with 2.75M fewer cases and €2B+ savings.
Is expansion cost-effective amid uncertainties?
Yes. BCRs stay >1 with 50% vaccine discounts, ±20% costs, or 50-year views.
